The death of Haniyeh and its effects on the Middle East
On July 31, Hamas' top leader Ismail Khaniyeh was killed in Tehran after attending the swearing-in ceremony of Iran's new president. Unfortunately, as of now, the details of Haniyeh's death have many versions that emphasize the complexity of this attack. However, Hamas, Iran and other countries firmly believe that Israel is the power behind the throne. Based on this judiciary, Iran and the 'axis of resistance' it supports will inevitably retaliate against Israel.
Israel, on the other hand, will increase its provocations in the Middle East by taking advantage of the "window period" of the Biden administration in the USA. While Israel will continue to take steps aimed at completely eliminating Hamas and thus weakening the union among all Palestinian parties, it will continue to provoke Iran to get more support from the US and help Netanyahu get out of this Gaza crisis. As a result, the situation in the Middle East will be further plunged over the next few months.
Reasons for the murder of Hamas' top leader
It is widely accepted that the Decacitation Attack (a military strategy aimed at eliminating the leadership or command and control of an enemy government or group) is a method that Israel often uses to attack its opponents. More examples of this assumption have emerged this year. Three of Haniyeh's sons and many grandsons lost their lives in an Israeli airstrike in April. More than 60 members of Haniyeh's entire family were reportedly killed by Israel. It was reported that the senior commander Fuad Şükr, who was considered the "second man" of Hezbollah, was killed in the attack carried out by Israel with an unmanned aerial vehicle on July 30. On August 1, the Israeli army made a statement confirming that Hamas' military commander, Mohammed Deif, was killed in the Gaza Strip on July 13. However, the frequent use of this tool also emphasizes Israel's decline and hysteria in the Gaza conflict. It can be said that when the winner cannot be determined on the battlefield, more murders or "head-cut attacks" will occur, which will lead to a dangerous situation and greater uncertainty in the Middle East.
But no matter who is behind this attack, for several reasons this is for Israel's benefit. Haniyeh's death can be used by Israel to ease internal and external pressure on the Netanyahu government. Within Israel, there are many criticisms that accuse Netanyahu of being very weak and not making any progress in 10 months of military actions. The US Biden administration and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris made clear statements that Israel should cut the fire and sign a peace agreement as soon as possible. Under such great pressure, Israel is on the way to liquidate Hamas leaders. While this, on the one hand, this can calm the far-right forces and hardness supporters in Israel, it can seriously weaken Hamas' power.
It can be used to disrupt or even stop peace talks between Israel and Hamas. At the moment, the peace talks between the two sides are not going smoothly. Compared to Hamas' hardness supporters, Haniyeh was one of the people who wanted to negotiate with Israel. The death of relatively moderate Haniyeh will inevitably lead to greater obstacles in negotiations between the two sides.
Israel could put great pressure on Iran not to show goodwill to the West. The death of Ismail Haniyeh took place in Iran instead of other countries was a great humiliation for the new Iranian government. This was an ongoing provocation and pressure on Iran and was also a warning to the new Iranian president not to try to improve relations with the West. Israel wants to see an Iran returning to conflict with the West.
Haniyeh's death will also negatively affect the reconciliation process within Palestine. Israel is very afraid that 14 Palestinian groups will reach a compromise and sign the Beijing Declaration on the End of Division and the Strengthening of the Palestinian National Union. It is urgent for Israel to divide them as much as possible and prevent Palestinian groups from coming together.
In addition, Israel aims to show the great powers in the Middle East and the world that it has the ability to eliminate any of the leaders of all resistance organizations at any time, anywhere. If someone chooses to continue the conflict with Israel, they will inevitably suffer a heavy blow from Israel. This is actually another deterrent for the 'axis of resistance'.
Finally, Israel intends to bring down Iran and even drag Iran into a war with Israel. Israel has failed to achieve its goals in the Gaza conflict and is desperate in the face of Hamas, the Houthis, Hezbollah and other organizations. Israel's only hope is to continue to provoke Iran, leading Iran into a long-term war and then help Israel get rid of the impasse it is in by enabling the US to participate in the war.
Possible reactions of Iran and the "axis of resistance"
It is certain that Iran and its "resistance axis" it leads will retaliate against Israel and further weaken the power of Israel and the USA in the Middle East.
Specifically speaking, Iran's response is inevitable, but the severity of the attack will be within a controllable range. Iran neither wants to have a direct conflict with Israel nor to trigger a military conflict with the US. After the murder of General Qassem Soleimani from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the bombing of the Iranian Embassy in Syria, Iran adopted the method of retaliation for a "seque-based strategy" to control the conflict between Iran and Israel. Iran is expected to retaliate in this way this time. However, there is a difficult question for Iran, how it can do a balancing movement that could hit Israel to a great extent without escalating the conflict between the two countries.
Although Iran's counterattack is controllable, Hezbollah, Houthis and Iraqi militias backed by Iran will further coordinate and intensify their attacks on Israel. Over the past 8 months, this has been seen to be the most effective way against Israel now and for a long time. Therefore, it would not be wise to be brave for a moment. In other words, Iran still does not need to enter into a direct conflict with Israel and the US, but the anger of the people needs to be appeased.
While Haniyeh's death will not affect the normal functioning of Hamas institutions, Hamas' power has been hit hard since October 7 last year, and its ability to launch a larger-scale attack on Israel has decreased significantly. There are still two months to the first anniversary of the conflict in Gaza and Hamas may face a more violent attack by Israel. If it can last for these two months, it will be inevitable that Israel will deal a heavy blow to the status of military power.
The effects of Haniyeh's death on the Middle East
After the Saudi-Iranian reconciliation and the internal reconciliation of Palestine, the contradiction between Israel and Iran gradually became the main contradiction in the Middle East, and the region entered the process of forming an "anti-Israel" united front.
The resistance faction, predominantly led by Iran, has become the main force against Israel and the USA. Although the moderate group, especially Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and other countries, is still hopeful of Israel and the United States, Saudi Arabia has recently significantly improved cooperation with China on economic and security issues and expressed appreciation and support for China's mediation for internal reconciliation in Palestine. The harsh supporters, headed by Turkey, not only stopped reconciliation with Israel recently, but once again captured the flag of anti-Israelism and Palestinian bias. On July 28, 2024, Turkish President Erdogan threatened Israel to "intervene" military, as Turkey did in Nagorno-Karabakh and Libya in the past.
The contradictions between the USA and Israel about the Middle East will become even more evident and the Gaza conflict will spread to more areas. With Biden's withdrawal from the presidential election, the Biden administration entered a 'window period'. Israel is expected to increase provocations against Iran by becoming fearless during this period and take the Gaza conflict to a new level.
From Israel's perspective, there can be no ceasefire in the Middle East, and the war needs to be bigger and more tragic, and drag the Middle East into a greater chaos. First, this works for Netanyahu, because he can only maintain his political career by continuing the war. Secondly, this process is beneficial for Israel, which hopes to achieve its goal of completely eliminating Hamas, interrupt the internal reconciliation process in Palestine and take advantage of the “window period” of the Biden administration to do what it wants in the Middle East and weaken Iranian-led resistance forces. Third, this situation works for Donald Trump. Israel's attack in the Middle East would put tremendous pressure on the Biden administration and presidential candidate Harris, which would indirectly benefit Trump's presidential campaign.
Although the situation in the Middle East may become even more tense, there is still some gap before the critical point of a major war. The USA, Iran and Israel are the three most important forces in the Middle East that will determine the next steps.
The US has neither the will nor the ability to cope with three crises at the same time, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Israel-Palestine conflict, the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. Currently, the biggest political issue in the United States is the US presidential election.
Iran, on the other hand, could deal a major blow to the USA and Israel with its Houthi armed forces, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the militias in Iraq and Syria. Therefore, so far he has no reason to enter into a direct conflict with Israel.
The only uncertainty is Israel's next move, especially whether it will start a large-scale war against Hezbollah in Lebanon or take more provocative actions against Iran. This assassination is just the beginning of a new period of conflict. For Israel, the death of Haniyeh is a test of Iran's anti-Israel stance. Tel Aviv will continue to increase its provocations and constantly test the anti-Israel attitudes of Turkey, Syria and other countries, so that it will be prepared to expand the scope and scale of the war in the next step.
5 hours ago 05/08/2024Author
The assassination of Ismail Haniyah, the leading national leader and head of Hamas' political bureau, was not just a military operation. Their goals were complex and efforts to end the war carried exceptional risks to regional security and the implementation of the reconciliation agreement after the Beijing Agreement. It can also challenge Hamas' internal stability. In the ongoing conflict between the occupying state and the Palestinian resistance, careful analysis is required beyond the attempts to underestimate the effects of this event.
What happened can be seen as an extension of Israel's military efforts, which, in Prime Minister Netanyahu coids, to achieve "absolute victory". This effort works on many levels: it tactically aims to weaken Hamas' political capabilities both at home and abroad, thereby weakening its external ties and organizational harmony. It also includes weakening the ability to launch attacks and the collapse of Hamas' military and political infrastructure operationally. Strategically, it aims to impose comprehensive security regulations on Palestinians. All of this, in light of the consequences of the war, aims to further separate Gaza from the national project, preventing the establishment of a Palestinian state by continuing the geographical and political division that has been going on for more than 17 years since the partition of Palestine after the armed conflict between Hamas and Fatah in 2007.
Therefore, the assassination targeted Ismail Haniyeh not because of his military or political role, but because he represented the unity of Hamas inside and outside and gained wide acceptance in the movement. Haniyeh also represented an important political symbol, as he was a former Palestinian Prime Minister and his government had considerable confidence in the Palestinian Legislative Council at the time.
From this point of view, Tel Aviv saw Haniyeh's continued leadership as a threat to Israel's war strategy aimed at dispersing it. It can be said that Israel's account for assassinating Haniyeh is not only to avenge Hamas or neutralize its political or military role, but rather targets the existence of Haniyeh, which maintains the internal integrity of Hamas. This selective assassination policy, both at home and abroad, deepens Hamas' dilemma of managing its complex internal affairs, making it even more difficult to manage the situation, given the geopolitical inequalities in Gaza, the West Bank, the diaspora and other countries, each with different legal, security and political realities.
In this context, it is clear that Israel has definitively rejected any agreement with Hamas, allowing the war to continue and escalate, especially after assassinating a key name involved in the movement's negotiations. After a few attempts to force Hamas to withdraw from the negotiations, it seems that Israel's goal since the beginning was to use “negotiations” as a cover for extending the war, to gain time to impose irreversible field and political realities, and to appease the Israeli public, who demanded an agreement for captive exchange between the Palestinian resistance and Israel.
The murder of Ismail Haniyeh and the announcement that more Hamas soldiers and security leaders, including Mohammed Deif, the General Commander of the Qassam Brigades, will be assassinated, are part of a strategy aimed at undermining the possibility of reaching an agreement that will end the war. This means that the war will continue and it will escimate with the potential to turn into a regional conflict, which reflects that the principle of "heroic flexibility" adopted by Iran's new leadership under President Mesoud Pezeshkiyan, who is interested in improving relations with the West and tries to avoid a war of attrition or an open conflict with the United States, has been tacitly rejected by America.
However, the most dangerous part of this scenario is that such a comprehensive regional war, which Iran has so far tried to avoid, has been strongly desired by the Netanyahu government, which received Washington's support, and puts the Palestinians under serious pressure. While it is clear that Israel is not seeking a ceasefire or a temporary ceasefire with Hamas, the humanitarian risks in Gaza will double and the reflections of the planned regional war may extend to the West Bank, where the occupation aims to create a state of collapse and chaos through economic siege and various security tools.
In this context, it may also have been aimed in relation to the reconciliation efforts, preventing the implementation of the Beijing Agreement with the assassination of Haniyah. Because it was known that Khaniyeh played an important role in combining Hamas's stance behind the agreement and confirmed a strong commitment to its content. With Haniyeh's death, Hamas' busy regulating his own internal affairs could affect his ability to make progress in implementing the terms of the agreement. Breaking reconciliation agreements is one of the main goals of Israeli policy as Israel tries to prevent Palestinians from rebuilding their political systems and maintaining the legitimacy of their institutions.
Israel's approach to this was made clear when the Knesset rejected by majority of votes to establish a Palestinian state within the borders of 1967, simultaneously with the International Court of Justice's decision to illegalize Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories seized on June 4, 1967. This move dealt a blow to Israel's efforts to weaken the chance to establish a Palestinian state based mainly on the unity and united representation of the Palestinians, which Israel is trying to disrupt by encouraging the division of Palestinians, maintaining this division and creating political vacuum in the West Bank and chaos of security in Gaza to reshape reality to its own security and political standards.
Returning to the assassination of Haniyeh, the delay in filling the gap created by Hamas' absence as the head of the political bureau could lead to the risk of a leadership crisis within the movement, which could directly affect the movement's ability to implement the terms of the Beijing Agreement, especially the conditions for the establishment of a national unity government or temporary leadership framework. This step could prevent the invaders' attempts to impose alternatives in Gaza or create a political vacuum in the absence of President Mahmoud Abbas.
While it acknowledges the possible challenges of reaching an agreement on the successor of Haniyeh, a point of balance between the different power centers within Hamas, the movement is known for its flexibility and strong structure that allows it to overcome these challenges. However, the real challenge remains the prevention of any external intervention with negative agendas for the movement. This emphasizes the importance of having allies and friends who can contribute to providing a favorable environment for a smooth leadership transition within Hamas and isolating harmful interventions.
Likewise, forces interested in the Palestinian people can help absorb and control the pressure on the Palestinians to prevent the implementation of the Beijing Agreement, which strengthens the unity of Palestinians and strengthens their position against regional and international-backed weakening and marginalization attempts of Israel.
If Hamas reaches an agreement on Ismail Haniyeh's successor and the Palestinian Authority's rapid action to form a national unity government with the support of pro-Palestian forces, these steps will strengthen Palestine's position and frustrate Israel's plans to undermine the Palestinian national movement. The solidarity shown during the funeral of Ismail Haniyah, which reveals many positive indicators on the Palestinian scene, is a maisis for reorganizing the internal situation and discrediting Israel's excuses. Regional solidarity and international interest with the demands of the Palestinians can provide an important opportunity for them to achieve their national goals and turn their sacrifice into political consequences that serve their own interests and promote security and stability in the region.